12/19/11 - EOD Update

The adjustments made over the weekend worked out well for today's trading.

SPX - 3 Min

This was the primary chart I used today intraday which worked out well. Based on this chart, there is a very good chance we have five waves down off the 12/16 high. How this applies depends upon which 30 min count you believe to be in effect.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary 

Based on my primary, I believe this may have just about wrapped up the very complex corrective count right near the 62% retracement level of the 11/25 rally as well as finding a resting spot at the 10/4 - 11/25 trendline.

The triangle option I have been tracking may give the bull count an edge as well.

SPX - Triangle Option

If this is in play, wave E may have also wrapped up today.

SPX - 30 Min - Alternate

The bears favorite count at the moment. If this is correct, it is winding up a series of nested 1-2s down. The bears also triggered a confirmed hrly MACD sell signal.

The market is also well below the 20 and 50 day SMA so the bulls need to be cautious or get going here if they want to continue their rally.

I don't have the chart up but keep an eye on the lower daily MACD trendline I presented on this chart should there be more selling over the next few days.

EOD Update

I was hoping the week would have ended with some clarity but unfortunately that was not the case. One thing is for sure, the waves continue to overlap.

Going into Pre-Market Friday, my 15 min alternate count had much potential. However, by the end of the day, the 4-1 overlap was very apparent and basically voided that option.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary

The primary count here views the structure as a completed wave (b) correction. However, the wave structure does not necessarily look like the beginnings of an impulse wave up for  wave (c) either.

Therefore I'm leaving room for one more leg down to hit the lower channel trendline and the ascending trendline that connects the 10/4 and 11/25 lows. If that happens, I'm thinking this would count as a triple zigzag.

Take a look at the 15 min alternate count below though. This is the first real bearish potential I have seen in a bit.

SPX - 15 Min - Alternate

Again, the 4-1 overlap as mentioned above voided the previous count I presented. However, this now looks like something potentially more bearish with a triple nested 1-2 down.

If this option were to play out, I would expect the lower ascending trendline would break at approximately 1190-1200.

SPX - Daily

1200 should be the level to watch should more selling resume next week. The bulls need to defend this level and the bears need to break it.

I'll also be watching the daily MACD trendline.

Triangle Option

12/16/11 - Pre Market Update

So far by the looks of things, the upper TL is providing resistance. This lines up with the 15 min alternate count.

ES

SPX - 30 Min - Primary

SPX - 15 Min - Alternate

Primary Daily View

The triangle chart I have been posting since last week got me to thinking about the bigger picture and alternatives for my primary count.

SPX - PRIMARY

The main count here calls for a Primary 2/B/X flat in progress. At the moment I am looking for the completion of minor [b] of Primary 2/B/X.

Notice I have left room for the completion of Primary 2/B/X at the 10/4/11 low.

SPX - PRIMARY ALT 1

With the triangle that I have introduced, it is very possible that Primary 2/B/X may be forming a triangle itself. Rule-wise, this would not qualify as a triangle for Primary 2, however, a complex corrective count mean the same.

SPX - PRIMARY ALT 2

This option is very similar to the primary count above but instead of forming a flat, minor [b] is a triangle with minor [c] to come somewhere near 960.