2/4/12 - Weekend Thoughts

Here's an update on a collection of longer term charts I have been tracking. Based on my interpretation, the bulls are still looking good. However, bulls should be keeping an eye on some near term resistance.

Have a great weekend!

SPX - PRIMARY DAILY

Intermediate (B) has met the minimum 90% retracement of (A). However, as you will see below, the bullish alternate is certainly worth watching.

SPX - WEEKLY 

A large cup and handle / inverted head and shoulders I have been tracking. Bulls may be taking a stab at the upper edge of the rim at 1370.

SPX - 3 PUSH PATTERN

A 3 push pattern I continue to track. Notice the channels and trendlines that have been overcome by the bulls.

SPX - MONTLY BOLLINGER BANDS

A montly MACD bulls cross and upper BB at 1421.

SPX - LT CHANNEL

More channels.

DJI-

The Industrials are just 13.77 points away from matching the 5/2011 high.

NDX

The Nasdaq 100 is leading the way.

2/3/12 - EOD Update

Don't you just love it when the primary plan comes together? Near the open, I tweeted that I was watching 1345 today and sure enough the market aimed right for this level.

I think the top is in or very close to being in. However, which top do I think it is?

We will continue to work with the primary daily chart so please refer to it below. I eliminated alternate 2, the triangle, so now we just have to work with the primary and alternate 1 for now.

On the 30 min below, I do note the possibility that wave 3 of 5 is still extending so we will need to keep an eye on that.

SPX 5 - Min 

I see five waves up.

SPX - 30 Min

Five waves up but the tricky thing with extensions is that she can go on and on. MACD is rolling over so we'll see how much of a pullback results from this.

Primary - Daily 

Per this count, subminuette 3 is nearly complete and once it is, subminuette 4 will attempt to backtest the 1333 level.

Alternate - Daily

This count has minute [c]/[3] in and minute [4] is in progress or will start shortly and most likely retrace back towards the 50/200 day SMA. This count requires [4] to stay above [a]/[1] at 1267.06 to remain valid.

I'll post more long term charts over the weekend if I have time. Just a reminder, the monthly MACD bull crossed recently so this is something to consider.

Have a great weekend!

2/3/12 - Pre Market

ES

So far the market likes the 234,000 jobs created in January. This was well above the 121k expectation.

Now will this mark the top of the rally that began on 12/19? Keep an eye on all three of my counts I have been showing you all here.

The market may take a break after today but it may be shallow, should this leg off 12/19 complete today.

Don't forget, should this hold into the open, the market will gap over the longer term TL.

2/2/12 - EOD Update

Not much to add to today's action. The primary is still looking for a wave 5 to complete near term and that would cap the end of a 3rd wave.

SPX - 5 Min

Will we see wave 5 complete tomorrow? If so, per the primary 60 min below, that would conclude the third wave of minute [c]/[3].

SPX - 30 Min

Here's a simplified view of the 30 minute an the options.

SPX - Primary 

I think the market is still waiting to show her hand here and this makes it difficult to determine which count works best between the primary, alternate 1 and 2.

I'll stick with the primary until proven otherwise but again alternate 1 and 2 are strong contenders.

SPX - Alternate 1

This option coincides with the 5 min primary since it is also seeking an end to wave 5 of minute [c]/[3].

SPX - Alternate 2

Because I have been suspecting a choppy range bound market, this option also works very well.

At the end of the day, we can "what if" things to death. So all we can do is go with the primary until rules are broken rendering the count invalid.