4/18/12 - EOD Update [2:34 PM Update]

[2:34 PM Update]

Here's an update to a chart I posted a week or two ago. This goes well with the Bull Option 2 count below. So it is very possible the market may only be in Minor 3. It certainly channels well.

Note the green channel, that would be the projected target for Minor 4 should Minor 3 complete where I have the 1-3 trend line.

Just a thought.

EOD UPDATE

The market is keeping the count options open. I really can't say I favor one over the other but if I had to pick, I would probably give the edge to the bears due to the bearish flag pattern and potential H/S. Note that even the bearish flag still plays into my daily count below for the bullish options.

However, so long as the bulls hold 1375.86 (wave1 high on the 15m chart below) and 1360 (H/S neckline), they still have a chance.

SPX - 15 Min

SPX - 60 Min 

SPX - Bull Option

The top bull count option. Still trying to figure out how high minute [b] will bounce, which will help determine if a flat, tri or zigzag is playing out for Minor 4.

SPX - Bull Option 2

The top bull alternate. Perhaps the market is still only in Minor 3.

SPX - Bear Option

The bearish option. This would play out with the head and shoulders pattern above.

4/17/12 - EOD Update [9:38 PM Update]

[9:38 PM Update]

Forgot to update this chart from yesterday. Keeping an eye on the 62% Fib.

EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min

The market cleared up some counts today, however, the burden is still on the bulls.

The pink count is the top bear count at the moment and the blue is the top bull count.
The chart below shows that the market closed just under the 20 day SMA.

Pattern-wise this still qualifies as a bear flag and hence the burden on the bulls to make a new high.

SPX - Daily Bollinger Bands

Option 3

We'll just call this option 3 so long as the market continues to channel up. Notice this is an alternate to my bull option chart?

And don't forget the bears are still in the game.

4/16/12 - EOD Update

Not much clarity today but the wave action does appear to be choppy.

Bottom line, I believe the bulls need to defend 1360 or a very large head and shoulders pattern may play out with a target of approximately 1290.

Should the bulls defend 1360, there are still several bearish options (green and pink) that allow for a move to 1400. However, the bulls may make a drive for 1418 as well (blue option).

SPX 15 Min

Head and Shoulders

Bull Option

Just a reminder of a longer term view. Note that I'm trying to figure out what minute [b] of Minor 4 is trying to do.

It can easily turn into a flat, which would require minute [b] to retrace [a] by 90%. Or a triangle could be in the works.

One other thing to keep in mind is that the most recent pull back may have just completed minute [4] of Minor 3.

Bear Option

But until the bulls reclaim 1422 and up, this count must be respected, especially with the weekly MACD hooking down.

4/13/12 - EOD Update

** I updated the 15 min and channel chart below.

SPX -15 Min

There are still a few options near term but I believe the bears have the advantage at the moment.

Here is what I believe may play out in order:

1. Pink - A wave (3) gap down come early next week ***

2. Blue- The bulls somehow manage to hang on and save the 1357 low and launch a wave 3 up early next week.

3. Green - The Bears provide a bull trap by launching a wave y up to 1400 and then resume the sell off.

4. Red - This one is really not that relevant but still a valid count.

*** Note the 2 year bull chart below. The pink count may still apply to this one as well.

SPX - 2 Year Bull

 Should the pink count play out above, this would most likely represent wave [c] of Minor 4. Note that a wave [c] extension of .618*[a] places the market near 1347.

SPX - 2 Year Bear

Now should the bears really come out to play, the pink option would apply towards a more bearish move down to either 1324 ( [3]=[1] ) or 1284 ( [3] = 1.618*[1] ).

Two channels to keep an eye on.