7/10/12 - EOD Update

The market closed slightly below the 20 day SMA and put in what now looks like five waves down on the 5 min and 60 min timeframes. I still find it a little suspect and can argue a wxy count (as shown below) so we'll just have to see what plays out at the higher degree.

The burden is on the bears right now to reclaim 1375 and invalidate the near term bear count.

5 Min 

A very good chance black and red are complete so a proper Fib bounce at minimum may be expected.

Bear

Unfortunately either five waves down or wave iv completed, which would imply a bounce is to come. Would make sense here at the 20 day, however, we have seen the market slice through that many other times. We'll see how the bounce goes.

Bull

A few options on the bulls side here but at the end of the day, it is all choppy.

7/9/12 - EOD Update

5 Min 

 It sure looks like a triangle is forming down here. Three options on the 5 min here.

I'm still unsure of the red option here because wave i red does not look or count impulsive. However, if you look at this structure on the 60 min it sure looks like there are five waves down in the works with a wave iv triangle.

Bear

 A new low below 1374 will certainly give it a five wave appearance at this timeframe. If that happens, the wave (2) at 7/3/12 may just be the count.

Bull

The bulls can't seem to get anything going impulsively up. However, they still could be trying to get one last poke at the upper TL of the rising wedge. We'll see.

7/6/12 - EOD Update

Bear

 The bears are working on a rising wedge and appears to have completed wave iv. As I mentioned the other day, I do not believe it is possible to count the move off 7/3 high as impulsive so I believe the bear count may  be gunning for another stab at the upper TL of the wedge.

However, a break below the 1334 level where I have wave a/i would signal the likely end of the wave (2).

Bull

The bulls have a similar count to the bear count near term. They are working on five waves up to complete wave A of [Y] possibly near the upper TL of the rising wedge.

Both counts could still see a possible drop early next week if the market is planning to backtest the 20 and 50 day SMA, which are both at 1339. The 20 is working on crossing up through the 50 day.

Here is a long term chart to contemplate over the weekend. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the degrees but more so to the pattern that is playing out. Either it is an ED for the 5th wave at GS degree or it is a LD setting up some pain before more bullish days ahead.

This is the original long term chart I have been tracking. So there are still many long term options to think about, which should tell you not to get too caught up with any primary degree wave. Note the bearish monthly MACD though.

7/5/12 - EOD Update [4:30 PM Update]

[4:30 PM Update]

5 Min

Here's a 5 min squiggle view clearly showing a corrective pattern playing out. The bears may get one little dip  to fulfill the h/s potentially setting up here, which is also the 38% retracement of wave iii on the bear and bull charts below. Keep in mind the triangle on the 10 min below though so take the h/s with a grain of salt.


EOD Update

I apologize for any delays in commenting today in the new chat room. I believe this issue should now be resolved.

You can find the room by clicking on the "Real Time EW Analysis" link at the top of the blog. I hope to be in the room more moving forward.

10 Min 

If I get a chance to look at the squiggles that may indicate otherwise I'm leaning towards wave iv playing out here since the move off Tue's high counts best as corrective. Whether the iv becomes a tri or a flat, we'll know tomorrow.

Bear

 As stated above, most likely a wave iv in the works.

Bull