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| 3 min |
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
12/12/12 - EOD Update
Earlier this morning, I posted a possible scenario post FOMC. So far that was pretty spot on.
Today was constructive for the bears to stage an attack on the lower TL of the wedge, however, until that TL breaks, the bulls still have a chance to squiggle their way up the wedge.
The bears also managed to create a -ve divergence on the hourly MACD and form a shooting star on the daily.
Today was constructive for the bears to stage an attack on the lower TL of the wedge, however, until that TL breaks, the bulls still have a chance to squiggle their way up the wedge.
The bears also managed to create a -ve divergence on the hourly MACD and form a shooting star on the daily.
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| 3 Min |
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| 60 min |
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| Daily |
12/12/12 - A Possible FOMC Scenario [11:43 AM Update]
[11:43 AM Update]
So far things are looking good for the initial call earlier this AM. Bears are trying to form five waves down and I have -ve divergence building in all time frames from 1-60 mins.
Still too early to call and so long as the lower TL holds along with higher lows, we'll have to wait and see. Of course it doesn't mean one can't nibble on some shorts with today's high as a stop.
[8:30 AM Update]
Here is something that I can see happening for today and the rest of the week. If this is a bullish leading diagonal, wave 4 may chop around for the next hr and then spike for wave 5 on the post meeting news.
After the spike, as with most diagonals, we see a steep retrace towards 62-78%.
Note the bearish scenario would see the same result. The only difference for the bear scenario would be that the 11/16 low would be taken out.
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| 60 Min |
Still too early to call and so long as the lower TL holds along with higher lows, we'll have to wait and see. Of course it doesn't mean one can't nibble on some shorts with today's high as a stop.
[8:30 AM Update]
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| 60 Min |
After the spike, as with most diagonals, we see a steep retrace towards 62-78%.
Note the bearish scenario would see the same result. The only difference for the bear scenario would be that the 11/16 low would be taken out.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
12/11/12- EOD Update
The market has managed to close above the 50 day SMA for a third day.
The pink option on the 15 min above assumes that the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders (daily chart below) is complete and the market is headed for 1500.
The blue option on the 15 min above assumes that the right shoulder needs one more dip lower before heading for 1500.
The 50 day on this chart looks like a natural neckline for the H/S and so far the market has managed to close above it. However, we shall keep an eye on the 1433 level should there be temporary resistance here.
This weekly chart continues to look good with the support of the 15 and 60 min charts above.
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| 15 Min |
The blue option on the 15 min above assumes that the right shoulder needs one more dip lower before heading for 1500.
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| Daily |
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| Weekly |
This weekly chart continues to look good with the support of the 15 and 60 min charts above.
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