2/28/13 - EOD Update

Looks like the intraday call was right with the triangle. After the breakout of the triangle, SPX may have completed wave {i} of (v).

Low and behold the bears defended the wave i high so the bearish nested 1-2 i-ii count is still on the table as well but I'm not sure the odds are good that this is the correct count since wave ii has retraced wave i signifcantly.

I believe the other alternate I have is the completion of a wave [x] of (iv). This has better odds than the nested 1-2 i-ii down but both imply the same thing near term.

In fact all three options are looking for a sequestration pullback tomorrow.

2/27/13 - EOD Update

Welcome to Mr Toad's Wild Ride. Yesterday I mentioned that the bulls had a few things going for them near term and they surely took advantage of it.

I also mentioned the potential VIX equity buy signal, which did trigger today.

This leg up today, may take a little breather so lets see what the pullback looks like tomorrow.

5 Min 

Right now, I'd say stay nimble because there is a case for both the bulls and bears.

For the bears:

1. The bears still have the potential nested 1-2 i-ii down. This option is out if 1525.84 is taken out.

2. There are still lower highs and lower lows since 2/20.

3. A potential leading expanding diagonal may also be developing, which is bearish.

4. It is also possible that a larger wave (iv) triangle could be developing, which would send the market range bound for a little bit.


As for the bulls:

1. VIX equity buy signal

2. The bounce off today's low appears to look like an impulse that may have a few extensions in store.

3. A close back above the 20 day SMA.

60 Min 

VIX

2/26/13 - EOD Update

There was some chop near the day's low, which turned out to be an ED to complete what may have been wave (iv) or wave [w] of (iv) or wave i of a nested 1-2 i-ii down.

5 Min 

Some things going for the bulls near term:

1. 30 min +ve MACD divergence
2. An inverted h/s
3. A potential VIX sell, equity buy signal in the works. One more lower close for the VIX will confirm it.

The bearish scenario calls for a larger degree 3 of 3 gap and go down on tap if wave ii is not complete yet.

Looks like a tiny bear flag. We'll see.

60 Min 

VIX - Daily

2/26/13 - Intraday Update

11:23 AM Update

5 Min 

Some other Fib targets.

11:07 AM Update

1 Min

I adjusted the squiggles a little to reflect the ED I tweeted earlier today. Here is a target for the inverted H/S and 62% Fib target.

10:00 AM Update

60 Min 

The bears need to keep momentum going here. They cannot give up the 2/25 high, otherwise, the case for wave (iv) is pretty strong.

9:20 AM Update

1 min

One way to count 5 waves down off the 2/25 high.

8:00 AM Update

5 Min 

A possible descending triangle here. Thrust target at 1475, which is a legit level to target. Note the trend line below. It connects the 11/16 and 12/28/12 lows.