Wednesday, July 29, 2009

An Alternate Count for Wave IV

First off, I must make a correction to the following post:

I initially stated that I believed the Wave IV triangle was still in play even though there was a violation of the A-C line. Though this is still stated in EWP, what I failed to realize is that my Wave e in this post made a lower low than Wave c, which is a no-no when applied to contracting or barrier triangles in EW principle. Dan graciously corrected me on this.

However, this "no-no" rule would not apply if this structure was forming an expanding triangle. I am not so sure of that at this time.

What I do believe may possibly be a good alternate count is highlighted in the above charts.

Overall the formation looks like it may be an ascending/barrier triangle. If it is, it does not look fully developed yet in this state. It just looks a tad short and needs a little more sideways action. (I know. I know. Enough sideways action already!)

Using the good ole line chart again, clear subwaves are present. With this type of chart, I believe I see only Wave c completed with a Wave d in progress.

Notice how clean each a-b-c subwaves in red make up each a-b-c blue triangle subwaves. On the line chart you can just about see how each a-b-c red subwave adheres to the 5-3-5 pattern.

Again, this is only an alternate count but I will be prepared if we are surprised over the next two days if this current thrust is not the beginning of the final push to complete minute v.

Though SPX does not appear to have a valid triangle at this current count because of the wave e violation, other major indices do to include the OEX. This might be a telling sign.


Post a Comment