Tuesday, December 15, 2009

12/15 - ES Mini : Ascending Triangle or Ending Diagonal?

It's pretty obvious a wedging pattern is emerging. The question is are we seeing an Ascending Triangle (which is a continuation pattern) or an Ending Diagonal (which is considered a topping pattern).

The former would result in higher prices and the later in a pullback.

I present a double zigzag (W-X-Y) count for the minis. This is just one option of many options out there but I think I like this as my preferred at this time. The final Minor wave C of Intermediate (Y) is forming an ending diagonal.

A closer look (second chart) shows that minute wave 5 of the triangle is in progress. Fib targets are presented for minuette wave (b) somewhere between 1105-1097 before a final minuette wave (c) shoots to the upper converging trendline to complete this whole mess.

Be aware that if this count is correct, a wave 5 throw-over may result in price penetrating the upper converging trendline only to pull back substantially.

I forgot to add the Bollinger Bands, but they are tightening on the daily chart. This should be further evidence that a large move is coming. I think we will know shortly where we are headed regardless of the counts. Just keep an eye on the converging trendlines. She's gonna break one way or the other.


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