Thursday, December 31, 2009

12/31 - SPX : A Long Term View (and the case for a reversal)

Maybe this chart may provide some perspective. One cannot ignore the convergence of three things on the chart:

1. 1130 price high on SPX
2. The long term bear trendline
3. A support/resistance line over the past 12 years

I think this alone may indicate the end is here or near.

I think the majority of EW analysts (including myself but I am considering other counts) has treated the bear market rally as a Primary wave 2 of cycle wave C. There are other folks out there who believe this could be the beginning of a new secular bull market and are labeling the rally as Primary wave 1.

At this point in time, I don't think it really matters what camp you fall in because
with either option, a substantial pullback would be on tap if the top is in.

The bears are expecting the beginning of Primary wave 3. In this scenario, a pullback below the March lows in anticipated.

The bulls would expect a Primary wave 2 pullback (which in itself could be substantial enough to retest the March lows). The following would be expected P2 levels based on Fibonacci retracement levels:

38.2%: 950
50%: 897
61.8%: 850

We will see soon enough.


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