Wednesday, January 20, 2010

1/20 - E-Mini : The Bearish Count [4:50 AM UPDATE]

[4:50 AM UPDATE]

The right shoulder on that H&S is looking pretty good. The 1138 level has provided some resistance a few times now.

The options for this AM:

1. We are either setting up a 1-2, 1-2 with a 3 down at the open or...

2. Waves 'a' and 'b' completed with 'c' in progress or...

3. Waves i and ii completed and iii in progress.

I think option 2 and 3 are more likely at the moment.

You have seen my bullish count in the previous post for SPX. I now present my bearish count, which is represented by E-mini.

I have wave (ii) of [iii] working the retrace near the 61.8% retracement level. That makes for a good right shoulder if there is another H&S in play. This one may have a good chance of playing out.

I think at this point, 2 levels are key. Either 1148 is taken out and that will confirm a final minute [v] is in play or price breaks below the neckline in a convincing fashion. If the latter occurs, then I'd the case for the trend change would be pretty strong.

I think we may know no later by the end of this week.


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