Wednesday, January 20, 2010

1/20 - SPX BULLISH COUNT (THE ALTERNATIVE)






By no means am I feeling like a bull right now, but I have to present what the possibilities are. And one possibility is that we may have one more move higher to complete a final wave 5.

There was a discussion on the CiL (see below) today regarding what appears to be a wave 4 triangle (expanded now). If this is the case, it would imply that we should expect more upside to come.

By EW rules, this count should not not work (see more on this here), however, one can't completely rule it out either because I have seen EW rules broken in the past. Besides, though the structure looks impulsive, it is possible that the structure could count as a 3-wave structure at micro level and I'm just not seeing it.

I think I found a different way to count this that would make this work for the bulls. It also satisfies the criteria for a diagonal since wave 4 did not overlap wave 1 until today.

Anyway, whether my count works or if this turns out to be a wave 4 expanding diagonal triangle, today's bounce may be the beginning of wave 5. My expectations for Wave 5 is highlighted on the chart and hopefully the notes provides a clear explanation for my thesis.

Oh, and almost forgot, if this still counts as a diagonal, wave 5 should complete in a zigzag, a-b-c, 3 wave fashion.

My bearish counts are still in play and at this time is the preferred count. I'll try to update some charts later but suffice it to say, if one were to go with a bearish count, expect a retracement near the 1140 zone tomorrow for a 61.8% retracement.

However, keep in mind there was a gap above at 1147.95 that may get filled. This would make for a 90% retracement.

[For those not familiar with the CiL, check out the Circle Community Lounge at the bottom of my blog. It's a real time chat room where traders with all different disciplines come together to share their ideas and views on the market. Feel free to drop by and share your thoughts.]

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