Saturday, January 23, 2010

1/23 - MACD Cross- Missed It!

Weekly MACD 12/18/09

Weekly MACD 1/12/10

DOW Daily

SPX Daily

Remember the top chart? I posted on this topic several times with the top one being the latest. Link to post here.

At the time of that post, I showed a cross had occurred (which turned out to be incorrect) but quickly followed up with a correction on a follow up post.

Well I dropped the ball because I failed to follow up on this. As it turned out, (see second chart), she finally crossed the week of 1/10-1/16.

***Note***: On my second chart, for some reason my charting software was not displaying all the data on the weekly. However, you can see where the MACD cross occurred.

Look what happened the following week (this past week) just like all the other weekly crosses I had highlighted. The market gave back 3.8%. Up until this past week, when a weekly MACD cross occurred, the average decline was 4.4% the following week.

I have included daily charts for the DOW and SPX. It is clear, SPX broke through that trend convincingly. The Dow has broken it as well however so slight.

What does all this mean? I would suppose it confirms a top in the wave count and that most likely a multi-month decline is underway. This of course assumes that price behaves the same way as all the other weekly crosses.


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