Monday, January 25, 2010

1/25/10 - SPX AM UPDATE [3:40 PM UPDATE]

[3:40 PM UPDATE]

Here's an alternate count addressing the 7 waves I posted about the other night. This count would get us 9 waves to complete this impulse down and wave 5 would be considered extended.

There is no rule violation here either with regards to wave 3 since it is still longer than wave 1. I have highlighted all 9 waves in green. There are some Fibonacci confluences here to.

Wave (v) blue equals wave (i) blue x 1.618 near 1088 and wave v red equals wave i red at 1085. This area is considered a strong support area (though the DOW has broken down through it).

If this alternate count pans out, we should expect minute [i] to end somewhere near 1085-1090.

I still like the nested 1-2 count and it is my preferred but I will say this alternate is very close as well. If price smashes through 1085 convincingly, then I think I can say my preferred count is certainly playing out.

[EOD UPDATE]






Since 1104.89 was not taken out, the nested 1-2s (3 total) are still in play.
It looks like wave iv (red) of the 3rd set of 1-2s completed today.

The move up from Friday's 1090.18 low counts well as an a-b-c corrective. Many overlapping waves and a wave 'b' triangle to boot. The final wave C, which I was speculating on the CiL to be an ED turned out to just count as a 5 wave impulse up. The waves channeled well, with a 5th wave throw-over to boot.

I labeled what appeared to be a new impulse heading back down. Granted it may also count as only 3 waves down so far. A break of 1095.74 to the downside will truly confirm that this corrective move up is over.

One thing I noticed today is how long the waves took to build up, only to lose half of it's progress within the last 10-15 mins of the day. To me that signals weak momentum to the upside.

[10:40 AM UPDATE]
And the alternate count.

[10:30 AM UPDATE]
Looks like that ED only completed wave iii. The next best count I have here is that wave 5 completed, backtested the rising trendline for wave 3's ED and was rejected. Breaking 1095.74 will confirm this corrective wave up is over.

[10:00 AM UPDATE]

I'm thinking wave 5 of C is ending in an Ending Diagonal.




Following up on Friday's post, I'm showing a wave iv corrective off Friday's bottom. This would be wave iv (red) of what I believe to be either micro or submicro degree. It is part of the 3rd nested 1-2 count.

Wave c of iv was about to begin and using Fib relationships, c=a=1105ish and c=.618a=1100ish.

It cannot exceed 1104.89 or there will be a 4-1 overlap on the third nested 1-2. Will see.

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