Tuesday, February 16, 2010

2/16/10 - SPX EOD [1:50 PM Update]

And here's another chart for the bears. Looks like a backtest of that old rising trendline, which coincides with the 50% retracement. Over time a 61.8 and 78.6% retracement may certainly occur and still respect the rising trendline over time sometime in early Apr.

[1:40 PM Update]

Just some more thoughts on the alternate count.

[1:20 PM Update] The count above certainly has to be given some serious consideration. If this is correct, it is almost complete if not complete already.

Though the count below is not ruled out yet, I am skeptical since (ii) has retraced minuette (i) by 85%. This is not a rule violation but just doesn't appear to be proportional to the minute [i] and minute [ii] relationship.

Either way, on a shorter term perspective, the counter trend rally should be at an end or close to the end and the downtrend should resume.

By the close here I made a few tweaks on my previous options. So far, it is behaving as expected. This is my best count with the alternate labels in place.

The question now is, did minuette (ii) of [iii] complete at the close or just wave iii of 'c' of y of (ii)? 1097 looks like it may be a good stopping point.

1097 is the 50% retracement level from the 1150 top. So if the count has been wrong all along and minute [i] bottomed at 1044.50, and this has been minute [ii], it technically has retraced a proper Fib.

The orange channel lines are EW lines projecting for wave y of (ii). It came very close to the upper channel, so there is a case for it being the top. However, if the alternate counts are in play, the final push up could hit the center line of the channel and still hit 1097 a few days later.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.


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