2/17/10 - SPX EOD [10:10 PM PST Update]

[10:10 PM PST Update]

I just wanted to add this additional alternate label. Based on this alternate I have wave iv (black) forming an a-b-c. Waves a and b are complete and a move down to form c near 1093(c=a here) or 1089 (c=1.618a).

An interesting Fib relationship should be noted if this alternate label ends at 1089. Wave v=i at 1103.60, which is a Fib confluence where y=1.618w


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SPX EOD

Count @ approx 12:00 PM PST

EOD Result

Earlier today I posted the middle chart in the CiL (noon PST) assuming that the sideways action was a triangle wave iv. By the end of the day, that count looked like the bottom chart.

I did not like the way wave d formed or the expected thrust up for wave v (if the alternate was used on that chart). Wave d does not fit the guidelines well for a triangle if this is supposed to be a contracting triangle. And if the triangle counted complete, the thrust out of the triangle did not look impulsive at all.

For all I know, that count may still work but I think the top chart here may be another possibility. I show wave iv ending early on and a wave v ending diagonal in the works, approximately 3 subwaves have completed so far.

It is still too early to tell so we'll have to watch the action tomorrow. More zigzag 3 wave structures higher will be a clue.

One other way to count the top chart is to consider the triangle complete where I have alt:iv labeled and possibly a wave v ED has just begun (i.e. wave 1 complete and 2 in the works). If this count comes into play, I will certainly lay it out.

Again, this is way too early to tell but something to keep in mind and to keep a look out for.

I did not include MACD on the charts but it should be noted that the 30 min is still in a downtrend and the 60 min is about to cross down and is sporting negative histograms.