Tuesday, February 23, 2010

2/23/10 - SPX Mid AM [2:15 PM EOD Update]

[2:15 PM EOD Update]
Here's a squiggle count off my preferred count from the 1112.42 top. If you recall, I started with this count last week. I don't think the Leading Diagonal pattern is legit but it still counts as an impulse wave anyway so it is a good 5 waves down.

I think the squiggles count well to justify the nested 1-2s at the top here, if not the larger nested 1-2s still work.
[EOD Update](
Preferred Count

Alternate Count

Looks like we saw a battle go on between the bulls and bears during the second half of the day. If appears the bears may have taking a slight advantage into the close There are two channels that were in play that I believe to be significant.

On the top chart, orange channel represents the EW channel for my w-x-y zigzag for minute [ii]. (review to the the bottom chart for the overall view. Note, though the waves are labeled as a and b, from an EW channel perspective it still means the same thing, just substitute the a and b with w and y). Price broke below the orange channel today and backtested it unsuccessfully. This happened twice. That should be bearish.

The next channel is the pink one, which represents a general channel for the entire move off the 1044.50 bottom. Again refer to the second chart for the overall view.

I believe this is the next line in the sand to determine were we head in the next few days. This should determine if we have one more push higher or consider minute [ii] complete at 1112.42.

I have a preferred count and an alternate count above. Within the preferred chart there are a few alternatives as well.

Below are my options ranked in order:

Option 1. The first impulse wave off the 1112.42 top is almost near completion. Green wave iii is almost complete, iv and v green should follow. A possible target may be 1085. This should complete minuette (i) of [iii] down.

Option 2. We are seeing a nested 1-2 count, which I have labeled in orange and red. A third wave down is next on tap and will break down through the pink trendline. The target here would be to fill the gap below at 1079.

Option 3. Based on the second chart above. The entire move down today completed wave iv and a fifth wave higher is expected. A target for wave v would be near the orange circle at approximately 1115.


I wanna see that dashed pink line break

The above chart is still my preferred count.

However, I do want to see price break below the dashed trendline (pink).


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