Thursday, February 25, 2010

2/25/10 - EOD Update

Preferred Count

Alternate Count

What a reversal today. It sell off started off on a very bearish note but the bulls were able to pared down the losses.

Not much has really changed in terms of my preferred and alternate counts.

Just a few comments on my preferred count:

1. Until 1106.42 is taken out, the 1-2 1-2 count is in play.

2. Dan and Kenny pointed out the Leading Expanding Diagonal (LED) count (I have placed the expanding trendlines in green. I think this is a very strong possibility.

Whether this is the count or the nested 1-2s, both imply the same thing, a wave 3 should follow.

The Fib retracements are for the LED count. Based on that, price has retraced 61.8% and 78% gets it just under the long term bear trendline. The LED count is off the table if the SPX cranks out a new high over 1112.42.

So until 1106.42 and 1112.42 are taken out, the count remains bearish.

As for the alternate count I have above, I show wave iv complete. If this count is correct, I would expect wave v up.

Some comments on the alternate count:

1. A new channel (black) was included using the 2-4 line to assist in determining where we may expect wave 5 to end. The orange circle designates the anticipated target. This is approximately 1107. Price may also target the top channel, that is estimated at approximately 1130.

2. The red and blue Fib fan lines are both set at 78.6%. Perhaps price may find resistance here? Price is up against the blue fan now.

3. The blue Fib lines represent the length of wave i. Wave v=i at approximately 1105. This measures up to the red Fib fan.

That is all I have for now. It has been a long day at work. Tomorrow, I will be just as busy so I do not anticipate updating charts throughout the day.



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