Saturday, February 6, 2010

2/6/10 - SPX Primary Count Alert

Primary Count



Primary Count Squiggles


Squiggles For a (green) of (ii) blue


H&S


Ok. I think wave (ii) of minute [iii] is in or very close to complete; more so than what most are expecting for (ii). But I don't think that really matters because (ii) is not expected to retrace very high.

Tonight I have flopped my counts from last night's post. I'm feeling pretty good about this count.

I went over the squiggles with a fine tooth comb and I think there is a pretty strong case for this. But once again the only issue I do have is the structure for a (green) of (ii) blue. I say it is a double zigzag for a (green). Please see third chart for closeup.

If I'm wrong, it counts as a five wave structure. But the counter argument to this is the fact that wave b(green) retraced beyond a (green) thus implying that it is a flat.

The a third option I see, but I won't lay it out just yet, is that this is the first 3 wave structure of a wave iv triangle. But if it is not, we are looking at the beginning of a (iii) of [iii], which would be a pretty massive drop. And if the alternate is in play, (ii) up does should not have that much to go.

According to my primary count, a max extension of wave c of (ii) would be 2.618xa at 1071.85. This corresponds well with a potential Head and Shoulders pattern developing. See last chart for this.

A hit of 1070 would create the right shoulder. This would also hit the center channel line before reversing lower. One other option to this H&S formation is that we do go range bound within the center and lower channel line as speculated in the third alternate count. This would create a more balanced right shoulder since the left shoulder appears to have three should peaks.

We should know by Monday.

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