Thursday, May 13, 2010

5/13/10 - SPX EOD [10:50 PM Update: SPX Minis]

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

SPX - 5 MIN PREFERRED

SPX - MINUTE [i i i] ALTERNATE

SPX - EXPANDING ENDING DIAGONAL / TRIANGLE?

SPX - MAs

The market has made a second attempt to  recapture the 50 day moving average. That second attempt has been unsuccessful. However, it continues to find support at the 38% Fib retracement from the last swing high, which is approximately 1152. .

So far the market has traced out waves based on the counts I have presented. Last night, I was expecting a little more upside to the market to complete minuette (v) of minute [i] of Minor C. We certainly got that today. 

After a brief drop for subminuette iv, we completed a subminuette v, which by the way turned out to be an ending diagonal itself. See the 5 min chart above for this.
By the close it appears we began to trace out 3 waves down, which by my primary count is the beginning of minute [ii]. 

Keep in mind my alternate count is that we may have only completeD minute [iii] at today's high and we have begun minute [iv]. The problem I have with this count is that minute [iii] is really steep and the channel is quite off. We'll see.

1150 will be a key level to watch. If the market holds here, it is more than likely a wave 4 is underway. If the market breaks through, minute [ii] is most likely underway. 

Another option I present is the expanding ending diagonal or expanding triangle. With this option, the market is tracing out the first minute [a] wave of Minor 5. Once complete, a minute [b] pullback will take place and end with a final minute [c] wave to complete Minor 5.

 [5:45 PM Update: Random Charts]




[10:50 PM Update: SPX Minis]



The minis appear to be counting out a possible minute [iv] triangle. Its still a little too early to tell but we'll have to keep an eye on it. 

Minute [iii] channels well, except for the steep minuette (iii) of minute [iii] but that is not unusual per EW.

So if cash is following the minis, it may be working on some form of minute [iv]. In order for the cash count to work, the market will have to bounce at the open or else something else is developing. 

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