Sunday, May 2, 2010

5/2/10 - SPX Channel [10 PM PST Update]

[10 PM PST Update]


Ok. I had to use my TOS platform to look at the 5 min count. The count above is based off of the 60 min count below with a few adjustments and options.

The wave structure down counts well as a leading diagonal. It appears that it requires just a little bit more downside to complete subminuette v of the LD. This would most likely complete wave (a) of [y] or  (b) of [x] of Minor B.

Either way a bounce should be expected and because this appears to be wedge-like, a sharp 78% retrace should be expected. This would take us back to approximately 1205. The Fibonacci retracement levels are on the second chart.
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[2 PM PST Update]
 SPX - DAILY PREFERRED

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED
 SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

Some additional charts supporting a potential double three for Minor B.I updated the daily chart highlighting the rectangle pattern to include the ones that resulted in a decent pullback. So at the moment, it can go either way.

I had hoped that the glitch in my charting software for the 5 minute time frame would have corrected itself by today but unfortunately it has not. I have the structure from 1209.36 labeled as a double zigzag for minuette (a) of the second three of this double three formation. 

I am implying that we may see this work itself out as a flat, so that would imply that a minuette (b) is in store on a bounce back up before a minuette (c) takes us back down towards the 1180 support area once again.

We will just have to see if this structure pans out. Once again there are targets to the 1170-1150 area that have been identified if this double three structure fails. The alternates for the counts are in gray. 



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Here's a chart I posted on the CiL a week or so ago. It looks like the market is slowly working its way down towards the next lower channel. Notice on the second chart how a backtest was rejected?

I have placed some price levels on the chart as it corresponds with the upcoming week if it were to find support on the next lower channel line.

The pink rectangle highlights the range the market may slosh around in over the next few weeks as well and come to find support near the 1180 area by 5/17/10.

I'll will also be paying attention to the Fibonacci retracmement levels. So far a 23.6% retracement has occurred. Though it has technically met a Fib retrace level, let's watch out for a more proper one between 38-62 as well.

GL!

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