Monday, May 24, 2010

5/24/10 - SPX EOD [11:40 PM PST Update]

[11:40 PM PST Update]

I posted these charts  last week. I like how the eur backtested the larger neckline and hit the target zone as anticipated last week. Wow. .88? Really? We're gonna have to see...

[11:22 PM PST Update]

Looks like the minis are going to hit their H/S target. I don't have it labeled on the chart but this would be equivalent to cash's wave 5. The black horizontal line on the chart is 1034 (cash equivalent 1044.50). That would work out nicely for a wave 5 target to arrive at the lower channel. We'll see.

[3:20 PM PST Update]

There is still a 60 min macd positive divergence. Looking for the minuette (v) down and then a bounce.



The bears are still in control at this point in time. It appears that minuete (iv) completed finally today as anticipated and it appears minuette (v) began into the close.

I drew new (ii)-(iv) EW channels for some potential (v) targets. We may be looking at the mid-channel or the lower channel.

Once (v) completes, we can mark that as either the end of minute [c], if using the bull count, or minute [v] of the bear count. The alternative bear count is the completion of the second wave 1 down of a nested 1-2 off the 1219 high.

We shall see...


  1. grand,
    a friendly reminder, be careful on any long position. imho, at the moment, the risk is much larger than the rewards. i think we are into the free fall zone similar to Oct 2008.
    i posted a few comments on my blogs (check the last three).
    no chart, but i think you might want to see.
    concluded from many fronts, i don't see this as wave 5 of any kind. i see this leg down probably has the potential to down much below spx 1000.

  2. Humble. thx for stopping by. will keep that in mind. i think 1044 will be a pivot/support level first. notice that v=i near 1042.thx!

  3. oh and i also have c=a at 1018 and the 980 at 1.618a. will have to see how the structure plays out and adjust with the waves.

  4. Grand, i know you are very good & nimble on the market. i just want to point out don't try to catch the falling knife even if the low target reached. imho, it's too dangerous in the free fall zone. you are one of people most nice to me, i always appreciate.

    who is long? you know, probably those usual suspects perma bulls on cil, eg eco & dino & geno(yesterday he was looking for 1130). also ac saying during weekend that this is wave 2 correction & he is very bullish. i also saw yesterday eagle bullish(neowave also bullish as i saw their yesterday report of looking for new high), also eagle yesterday posted his little col is bullish. who else? lol

  5. Hi Grand....Mara May 25th....the low was exactly 5.7% below the 200 ma....!!!! as your 2007 fractal comparison.!!! congrats...