Thursday, July 29, 2010

SPX - 7/29/10 - [EOD UPDATE]

This is it for now. I have a new channel here based on the 2-4 line (assuming 4 is complete here).

This count is out if we see a 4-1 overlap at 1088.96.

 Looks like the market found some channel support at 25%. It was a touch and go.

 A closeup here.

[8:18 AM UPDATE]

[8:18 AM UPDATE]
I was a little premature in calling the conclusion of iv. The initial w-x-y may only represent wave [A] of iv. The early AM rally represents [B] and the mid-morn decline is [C] in progress.

For this scenario to remain valid, 1088.96 should not be breached. The Fibonacci retracments as mentioned yesterday are possible targets near 1099-1086.

This daily count is why I changed the degree labels for minute [iii] below. This is also a rough look at my preferred count that I have had for several months now, with the bullish alternate in gray.

SPX - 15 MIN
Don't you just love it when EW does pull through? If you review the last couple post, I drew this channel using the 1-3 line and created the lower channel to project for 4 by drawing a parallel channel off wave 2.

I also said at the close yesterday that I was contemplating changing the degrees for this minute wave [iii]. I have made the change here this AM.

By this count, the move off 1056.88 on 7/19 is only minuette (i) of minute [iii]. This count goes away of course if 1056.88 is taken out.

And of course if one were following the bear count, this would be the final 5th wave up to complete wave C but it may very well only be wave 1 of C. Keep in mind, in terms of Fibonacci ratios, wave C=.618A. However, C=A=1145.
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