Wave Principle: SPX- EOD - FEELIN A LITTLE BULLISH?

Thursday, July 15, 2010

SPX- EOD - FEELIN A LITTLE BULLISH? - EUR/USD RALLY!

SPX DAILY MAs

The market has now closed above the 50 day MA two days in a row. Previously it provided resistance.

The market also closed above it's downtrend line (see the bull chart) and the wave off the 1010.91 bottom looks impulsive.

If I were a overly biased bear, I'd think twice about where this market may be heading. And when I say overly biased bear, I'm referring to the ones who truly believe we will see a Primary wave 3 down.

And yes I've heard all the fundamental arguments on why the market is weak but that has been used for the past 16 months since we hit bottom in 2009. I'm not saying there are headwinds in the economy and that we couldn't test 950 again, but I'm just saying be careful.

I've already learned that lesson since last July 2009. I personally do not feel overly enthusiastic about the economy but I'm just not too sure we see the end of the world, at least not just quite yet.

SPX 60 MIN BULL

I've changed this count and moved my alternate labels to the preferred one. I have a Minor B bottom at 1010.91. Previously I labeled that bottom as the end of minuette (a) of minute [y] of Minor B. That will now be my alternate count.

As stated above, the market broke above the downtrend line, which I have said I would like to see it do and the move off the 1010.91 low looks pretty impulsive to me. I'm looking for a minuette (v) up to complete minute [i] of Minor C of intermediate (Z) for my preferred count. See my 15 min chart below for a closer look of the structure off the 1010.91 bottom.

SPX 15 MIN

This should be self explanatory. Minuette (v) is in progress and started with at nested 1-2.

SPX 60 MIN BEAR

Here's an update to this chart. Looking for a subminuette c of (ii) to wrap up. Though I will say this count is on the brink of elimination since minuette (ii) is coming up on a 78.6% retracement of minuette (i).

That is just a little two much to consider this count with a higher degree of probability and especially since the minute [ii] did not retrace minute [i] beyond 62%. However, this count is remains valid and as I've said before, "it is until it isn't".