Tuesday, July 27, 2010



Today's sideways action for the most part smelled of a wave 4 but the question would be at what degree.  

The main count shows that subminuette b of minuette (iv) is sculpting out a triangle before minuette c drops down a little further near 1110-1100.

The alternate to this is that minuette (iv) completed at 1110.86 and the market is working it's way up to complete minuette (v) of minute [iii] (this would be subminuette c of the bear count). 

The bullish argument is that the market did not sell off into the bad consumer confidence report and took on a consolidation pattern in preparation for a  move higher. 

The bearish argument is that if this is the final stages before a 5th wave higher to end a wave 2 up, watch out below. I don't place too much confidence on this though but that possiblity is there and one should be prepared for it.
[11:25 AM UPDATE] Possible triangle alert for either (iii) or iv.

SPX 15 MIN [10:25 AM UPDATE]

Looks like a possible flat for the minuette (iv) with the possibility of a zigzag.

If it's a flat, most like just a tad lower than 1110 or the end of subminuette a as a target. Perhaps 1107 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracment level.

If a zigzag, c = a at approximately 1104 and .618a at 1109.

If minuette (iv) is in progress, some Fib levels to target and a lower channel line, which is drawn using a parallel line based on the (i)-(iii) line.
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