Saturday, July 10, 2010

SPX CHANNEL- A bearish thought


I posted this chart yesterday at EOD. I failed to mentioned, from a bear case, the following observation on the chart below.







With each retracment of the drop from the 1219 high on 4/26, the market has respected the 75% and 50% channel on each retracment. The market is now coming upon the 25% channel, which happens to rest near 1083 at the moment.

This corresponds with the 62% retracement off the 1131 high. If the trend continues, this channel may place a cap on it. However, if the market finds a way over, we may see price climb towards the 50% channel line between 1085-1200 depending on it's rate of ascent.
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