Wednesday, August 4, 2010

SPX - EOD - 8/4/10 [Updated: Oct 2007 Revisited]

SPX - Daily MAs
No changes on the count. The 13,21 and 34 EMAs are racing towards the 200 SMA at a pretty steep angle. The 50 SMA is clearly starting to turn up now as well.

I would imagine any sort of sell off in the coming days, if there is one, will find support at anyone of these MAs. The last test was on 7/30 at the

I'm highlighting this inverted head and shoulders once again. So far it looks good to me.

We back tested the neckline yesterday and picked up a little bounce today.The approximate target is 1230.

The major caveat to this is the lack of volume on the neckline break so we'll just have to keep monitoring this one.What may offset this is the weekly MACD indicator as posted here last night.

No real time today. I may add charts later.

Oct 2007 High
So I found a little more time. Remember this chart (See here for prior post)? At the time, I speculated that we were potentially repeating the Jul - Oct 07 period, which would correspond with my preferred daily view.

Since the current death cross, the comparison changed, however, I think seasonality may come into play once again.

I was reminded of this chart after reading Mark Hulbert's "No Time Like the Present". Notice back in July 07 the market found a bottom before posting a new high in Aug? Now look at the chart below.

On the current day chart to the left, it appears we may have found a bottom again in Jul and here we are again in Aug.

Notice how similar the structure is starting to look compared to the above? So do we play the odds?

I will continue to post this chart as the market progresses higher. Getting close to breaking out of the horizontal trendline.
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