Friday, September 24, 2010

9/24/10 - EOD Update

EOD Update

What a strong day today. That weekly MACD centerline crossover is showing her strength.

Here's a look at the 5 min chart. So was this move higher today a final wave 5 or (c) of my minuette (ii) or a larger wave 4?

And is that an ascending triangle (bullish) or an ending diagonal (bearish) into the close? We will know shortly next week.

The daily MACD took a a little detour today but the 30 and 60 min are looking like a sell signal is coming up. On the 60 min the negative divergence continues to build and if a triple divergence were to occur, a final little high in the market would mean we see a final little pop higher.

Notice MACD has hit that descending trendline. I'm holding onto my short scalp over the weekend. Gotta run for now.

Will get more charts out over the weekend.

11:06 AM Update

15 Min MACD sell signal so gotta watch out to see if this is the top of this leg. Gonna scalp a short here.

I don't know what is going on with Blogger. Anyway, I've increased the size of the image. Hopefully you can view it this way for now.

8:44 AM Update
8:44 AM -
I apologize for the link errors for the previous posts. I hope to get that resolved later today.

In the mean time, here is a new channel based off the 1010 and 1040 lows. Notice the top of the channel is currently at 1158. This is a relevant level since wave 3 or C = 1 or A depending on what count you are using.

I think it goes without saying that minuette (ii) is not in progress yet. If you look at the structure at this degree, it now really counts well as 5 waves up.

We'll see if she hits that 1158 level or if this final 5th truncates or if we continue to see this wave 3 extend as I have also speculated.

Wave iv again?

I will also say that this may still be a flat of a larger wave 4 even if we take out yesterday's high. Something to keep in mind if we sell off, especially if we can't take out yesterday's high or even if we sell off after taking out yesterday's high fractionally.

Also keep in mind the guideline of alternation. If this is still part of a wave iv, a triangle is always possible since wave ii was sharp.

5:48 AM Update
5:48 AM - 5 MIN

Wow. Futures just popped on some durable goods news. This may confirm the wave (c) that I'm expecting today or we had bottomed on yet another wave 4 and this pop starts off another wave 5 up.

Yesterday I also speculated that we may be slowly melting up in a never ending wave 3 extension (see 8:42 AM update). We will have to see.

I'll continue to watch the MAs and MACD for signs. I'm still watching the daily MACD since it is very close to a sell signal. It is possible this could be a final 5th up without really reversing it's course.
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