Monday, September 27, 2010

9/27/10 - EOD 1:15 PM Update

EOD 1:15 PM Update
EOD - 60 MIN

I apologize for always switching charting programs on ya. It just depends on what I have available at the moment.

Over the past few days, I have been watching the 30 and 60 min MACDs and looking for them to respect their descending and ascending trendlines and to indicate whether or not this leg up was coming to an end for minuette (i).

So far, I think it looks pretty good and today may have seen the conclusion of minuette (i), at least the odds are pretty high IMHO. First the structure looks like a pretty clean 5 waves up. Second, as previously mentioned, the 60 min MACD respected it's descending trendline and went into a sell signal into the close. Third, MACD is sporting a triple negative divergence.

I'm speculating that we are moving onto minuette (ii) and plan to hold my short scalp from last week down to the ascending trendline on MACD if the structure looks corrective up to that point.

There is always a caveat to all this. On a 5-15 min scale, it does appear today's selloff can still be a wave c of 4 before a final 5th higher is put in. But again, I think I like my chances here and even if there is a final fifth, it's very close to ending anyway.

That is all for now.

12:56 PM Update

We have a 60 min MACD sell signal.

8:16 AM Update

Finally have that 30 MACD sell signal. The hourly is up next.

8:16 AM - 60 MIN

7:21 AM Update
7:21 AM - 5 MIN

As posted at EOD last Friday, the wave structure was looking like a diagonal and so far this AM I think we got our answer for now, an ending diagonal.

The strength of rally suggest that this may only be part of a wave 3 up and today's correction is a wave 4. But as I pointed out last week, the 30 and 60 min MACD were both slanting towards the bear side.

7:21 AM - 30 MIN

The 30 min Histos have just about turn negative and notice again the trendline resistance (green) that MACD is following.
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