Tuesday, October 12, 2010

10/12/10 EOD - 3:45 PM Update Mini Ascending Triangle?

3:45 PM Update Mini Ascending Triangle?


Though other indexes are sporting wedges, which I also recognize, SPX futures is counting out completely different.

I think it just completed an ascending triangle today. The wave 5 triangle thrust target is 1203.

How does this fit into the bigger picture? This entire leg up from the end of Aug is minute [iii] per my daily count. See my current preferred count link to the right for that larger view.

Here's the view with the alternate ED option.

EOD - 3:22 PM Update

I forgot to include this chart earlier. Those of you who read regularly I have seen this one a few times now. The next channel line resistance above is the mid channel of the overall channel. The top of this channel sits at 1190 today.

1:45 PM EOD Update

SPX - 60 Min Preferred

Buying the dip this AM turned out to be a very profitable trade. I apologize for not following up to my 9:10 post. I had to run to a meeting.

Though at the time I was looking for a pullback to 1162-1161, the correction took on a sideways pattern, which should have signaled the pullback was going to be shallow. I place a limit buy and fortunately it was executed because that trade also turned into a nice one.

As for the rest of today. Though my preferred count is fairly bullish, I will admit that things still look wedgie.

The ED option I posted yesterday has been invalidated, however, I do have a new ED option below.

But first, Let's look at the preferred count above. I show a series of nested 1-2s. The heart of wave [3] should start tomorrow. As I type this Intel has released their ER and it appears they have reported a jump in profit and revenue so this may be a catalyst for tomorrow.

Notice that wave [3] = [1] at 1183. This is a key level as you will see with the reverse Fibonacci chart I have at the bottom. I posted that chart the other day and things appear to be lining up.

SPX - 60 Min ED Option

Here's the updated ED option. I'm still keeping an eye on this because the price pattern still appears to be overlapping and wedgie and this count looks like it makes a lot of sense.

Unfortunately for the bears, it implies higher highs to come and with this option, 1183 is also on the table.

If the count is correct, subwave [3] of the ED ended today and we may see a pullback for [4] before [5] makes it's final spurt higher.

I can't estimate the length of [5] yet until we determine that subwave [4] is in. Once we figure that out, [5] just can't be longer than [3].

The lower pink and blue trendlines are in play and shoule be watched for a break below to confirm the ED is complete.

SPX - 5 Min

Here's the count at 5 min.

SPX - 5 Min Head and Shoulders

I posted this chart earlier today at 8:00 AM. So far it has played out completing the green head and shoulders so we'll have to watch the orange one play out.

SPX - Reverse Fibonacci Technique and Conluence Zone

Here's a technique I have used in the past that has worked. The market appears to be headed for 1183 and the Fibs back that up.

We have counts to back up that target, this technique to provide us with some more confidence and the 60 min MACD turned bullish into the close.

One should remain bullish until those trendlines break. I will admit that I hedged my long position into the close since the market did bounce off the upper pink ascending trendline.
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