Wednesday, October 27, 2010

10/27/10 11:50 AM Update

11:50 AM Update
SPX - 5 MIN

Ok. There have been some comments going on back in forth regarding my larger ED and the blue ED above.

I welcome those comments because if my count is wrong, I wanna know. I have not ego when it comes to this stuff. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. We all just want to be on the right side of the trade.

The point on the larger ED is that wave [2] up is actually a flat vs a zigzag, which per EW, must be a zigzag. I accept that.

Keep in mind, that only strengthens the triangle alternate that I have laid and have been watching as well since we continue to see overlapping corrective waves.

The chart above highlights the fact that we have not seen five waves down off the Monday high since they would be considered a 4-1 overlap.

I highly doubt that it is a nest 1-2 down either. That would be three in row.

I have to run for the rest of today but let's just say for now my triangle alternate has stolen the spotlight from the ED again.

So we should be working on wave [D] up now. A 62% retrace of [C] takes us to approximately 1186.

For those who came by to read and comment/feedback, I appreciate it. I'll try to catch up to your questions later tonight.

GL! Last hour of trading!
10:20 AM Update



10:15 AM Update
SPX - 5 MIN

I think I really like this larger ED pattern. Working on (v) down now. Gonna go long here in a sec.

8:55 AM Update

SPX - 5 MIN

Now that we are talking about ending diagonals, there is another option to watch for. Perhaps a larger ED down is playing out to complete wave [4] or C of the triangle.

I have highlighted it above with the blue converging trendlines. This is still too early to tell but something to keep in mind.
8:36 AM Update

SPX - 5 MIN

Thanks Vodavi! I think this is how it should count. Great catch! Wave (c) ends with an ending diagonal.

I wish I had checked comments earlier. Folks, if you have counts going and think you can contribute, please do so.


8:15 AM Update
SPX - 5 MIN

I added the Triangle count to this chart. An I think I finally see five waves down for (c).

The ED and Triangle still remain on the table. Obviously (c)=(a) may be the ratio of the day.

Break below the green line and things start favoring the bears a little more.

7:40 AM Update
SPX - 5 MIN

I think (c) of [4] may be in or one more little push down to 1175. I see a positive MACD divergence on the 1 min.

Until 1171 breaks, we either begin wave d of the triangle or [5] of the ED up.





6:50 AM Update

SPX - 5 MIN

I updated the trendline to better reflect that off the 60 min chart. So far she is holding.

6:45 AM Update

Here's the 60 min view. The ED is still in tact as long as we hold here.
6:38 AM Update

SPX - 5 MIN

So far we have some buyers stepping in to support the 1180 area.

If the above 5 min view is correct, which is a closeup of the alternate view below, c=.618*a.

With this AM's selloff, the ending diagonal count may be in jeopardy if we fall further because the converging trendlines will start to widen which begins to lend more support to the triangle option.

Keep in mind, triangles take time and typically wave Cs in triangles tend to be complex (meaning a lot more whipsawing to come).

Pre Market
SPX Futures

SPX

Looks like futures is confirming the alternate I presented in yesterday's EOD post. 1175 has c=.618*a and c=a at 1166.

As posted yesterday 1171 and 1159 (cash) are the numbers to watch if the ending diagonal or triangle counts are to remain valid.

I think we will have more whipsawing again but also keep in mind my CCI chart I posted yesterday and last Saturday.
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