Monday, October 4, 2010

10/4/10 - Back-to-Back Running Flats and Count Summary


The daily MACD sell signal (which I have been looking out for) is bugging me a little bit with regards to the alternate triangle count I have listed below. What should follow is some more downside to come versus any higher move as anticipated by the triangle count I have listed below.

After reviewing the wave structure again off the late Aug low, I believe it is possible that wave iv completed today as a running flat. What I find interesting is the wave 4 of iii red. It also appears to be a running flat as well.

Instead of the triangle we had all anticipated, I'm thinking it was also a running flat, which was then followed by wave 5 of that wave iii red.

So it is possible that we have that here now. I have projected for wave v red via channels and Fib relationships to wave i red. Equality to wave i gets us back to 1157 (and mid channel) and 1.618 times gets us to 1173.

SPX - Minuette (ii) In Progress

This chart above is most likely what I believe may be happening and is my primary count, but if the market remains above 1131 and ultimately above 1122.79 the count on the 1st chart above and the triangle option below takes the stage.

SPX - Triangle Wave 4

You know what happens with the triangle chart.

So in the nutshell, short term I'm watching these three charts and watching the key support levels (1131 and 1122.79) before I am convinced of one count over the other.
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