Friday, January 28, 2011

1/28/11 - EOD Update #2

There was a lot of technical damage done today. The count and options I presented yesterday have been whittled down to two. Either a wave 4 flat completed today or is near completion or a short term/intermediate top is in.

I'm still on the fence as to what type of top.

Here is the main count with the bearish option. However, I have some reservations regarding today's drop. I posted that earlier today here.

MACD daily is right at trendline support. If the bull case is still in play, it needs to bounce next week. Price also dropped down into the lower channel.

Here is the cup n handle chart to give you one perspective. This matches with the main count above with the appropriate degree labels.

Look at this puppy. I initially posted this chart on Wednesday.

Almost like clockwork, the 8th day after the MACD topped, we saw a long red candle for the second time in the row. MACD was also rejected on the backtest.

The point drop for both were almost identical too. The 4/27 drop was approximately 26 points. Today we dropped 23. What would have been even more interesting is if the 4/27 drop had occurred on 4/28 since today is the 28th.

Here is a closeup of the drop today and why I question the impulsiveness of the drop. It is very similar to the 1/8/11 drop.

Any how, because of the technical damage done today, closing below the 13 day EMA and key trendlines I have been watching, we need to consider this as a possible new wave down.

So for next week, a wave 2 bounce would be in store. We'll have to look for a proper Fib retrace in the 38-62% range once the low is in.

Keep in mind only one wave down has completed. One must also give consideration to the fact that it may only be a wave 'a' because what if we did top but this is a top of a larger degree wave 3 and we just saw the first leg of a larger wave 4? Just something to think about.

That's just something one must do if analyzing Elliott Waves. Because waves 1,2, 3 is identical to a,b,c in a series. It is wave 4 that differentiates a impulse from a corrective wave.
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