Thursday, March 3, 2011

3/3/11 EOD Update [5:00 PM Update]

[5:00 PM Update]

Primary 60 Min count added below

EOD Update

Well that was some rally. A higher high was made ever so slightly and price broke out above the descending trendline I had labeled as part of a triangle I had been tracking. I believe price also regained the trendline connecting the Aug and Nov lows.

Over the past several days, I listed the scenarios below and had favored scenario #2, the triangle:

1. Market hits 1325-1330 and pulls back. If the next leg down holds above 1294 and then bounces up and takes out 1330, most likely that leg up will target at least 1340, which would bring the flat into play.

2. Market hits 1325-1330 and then trades between 1294- 1330 over the next several days, a triangle may be working out.

3. Market hits 1325-1330 and pulls back taking out 1294, then 1280 is most likely where it is headed.

Well today brought scenario 1 into play and what I thought would provide more clarification. It actually brought a few more options into play. Most of them however, tend to build upon one another.

I'm just going to list them below in order of what I think is more likely.

Primary Count

Posted here for the bigger picture.

Primary 60 Min

I'm going to call this the primary for now with the flat option in close second.

Flat Option

A 90% retracement targets the 1340s. There's that open gap up there as well. Keep in mind a higher high above 1344.07 may be made and this turns into an irregular (expanded) flat potential.

Ascending Triangle Option

Plays along with the flat but implies more sideways action to come.

Large Triangle Option

The jury is out on this one but worth noting here.

Zig Zag Option

1282 would be in the cards after (b) completes.

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