Thursday, March 3, 2011

3/3/11 - Pre Market

Pre Market



So far the move is holding since last night's post. 2.5 hours to go though and initial jobless claims comes in 1.5 hr.

As much as one would think that wave C is complete (if using the triangle), I still suspect this rally into the open is part of wave b of C with a possible target of 1325.

Of course the option that I will still watch closely is the flat option. A pretty fair signal that this is in play would be a breach of the upper green triangle trendline, which is at approx 1328 right at the open. Clearing the most recent high of 1332.09 would be better confirmation. Can the market muster up a 24 pt rally?

We've seen it before.

On another note. Folks continue to talk about the ME situation and it's impact on oil and its potential to derail the recovery. I understand that concern.

However, in the chat room yesterday I also mentioned that this may be a short term concern and one that the market may soon forget even if the situation does not resolve itself anytime soon. In fact, the market may have already discounted the worst case scenario. And if that is the case, perhaps the market will move on once the worst case scenario appears to be a less likely scenario.

Recall that situation with Greece, Ireland, Portgual, the Euro and even Egypt (before Mubarak stepped down) were all on the table and the market reacted and has since forgotten about it. Are those problems still around? To be honest I haven't really followed it but from what folks blog about and comment on in the blogs, I believe those things have not gone away. I say Libya and the ME tensions may be another example soon.

Last night, I briefly say a news flash on Marketwatch.com regarding oil futures pulling back on a Libyan peace plan.

This morning an article is out on that rumor:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-crude-down-sharply-on-libya-peace-commission-rumor-2011-03-03

Perhaps this is why futures were up 9-10 points.

However, let's turn our attention to Libya again today (currently 4:00 AM PST). ES is up 13 points and this is the front page article on CNN.com

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/03/libya.conflict/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

So why is the market up 13 points? Not sure the current action is indicative of a peace plan in the works. Is the market now ignoring the situation back east or has it already discounted it so this will not be noise? Just things to consider.

Granted I know there are several options still on the table but wouldn't you think that the increased fighting and "fresh" air strikes be a concern? Just things to think about.
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