Friday, April 29, 2011

4/29/11 - 8:56 PM Update

8:56 PM Update

Long term Fibonacci Retracments. We should be looking at the 78.6 and 85% retracment levels that target 1381 and 1440. These are numbers that are being thrown around and the market is closing in on em.

Here is an update of my corrective options for this 2 year rally. Notice the red option? It's almost spot on.

3:52 PM Update

Wow. What a move. The purple H/S target was met at 1361. Will the red one now be fulfilled??


Take a look at the weekly MACD. It's turning up and doing it right at long term support. Those unorthodox inverted head and shoulders patterns cannot be ignored either!


MACD for SPY is pretty clear on StrategyDesk. Daily MACD is clearly showing that the momentum is up.

EOD Update

I'm just gonna post two 15 min charts below that I'll be watching next week. One counts the move up off the 1294 low as a bullish impulse and the second one as a corrective move.

Both are potentially looking for one final little wave 5 that may target 1370. However, this may be a quick move and then a pullback.

I'll try to post more later over the weekend.

For the bigger picture options, see yesterday's EOD post.

15 Min Bullish Option

15 Min - Corrective Option

Thursday, April 28, 2011

5/28/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

I posted this one several days ago. Like father like son.

SPX- 15 Min - Bullish Option

Here's a bullish option of the latest rally. This would be applied to the Minor 5 In Progress option below.

SPX - 15 Min - Corrective Option

This would be applied to the Minor 4 Flat or Minor 5 ED options below.

Minor 4 Flat Option

Minor 5 In Progress Option

Minor 5 ED Option

RUT Weekly

I haven't posted this one in a while but it still looks good. Notice that 5=1 at 864? Only a few points away, however, wave 5 only looks like a three wave structure so most likely more to go if the count is correct.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

4/27/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

Howz about just a simple the trend is up? Daily MACD looks strong and a few simple charts below point to higher highs to come.

The most bearish count I see at the moment is the minor 4 flat potential which is still on the table. The ED option I presented the other night is also on the table but I would like to see a three-wave substructure for subwave 3 first. Other than the flat potential, I believe Minor 5 is in progress.

It's still an unorthodox inverted head and shoulders pattern that has played out throughout this rally that shouldn't be ignored. The neckline broke and was backtested. So unless the neckline fails tomorrow or sometime next week, 1440 should be one one's radar as a potential level the market wants to hit.

4/27/11 - 9:16 AM Update

9:16 AM Update

Watch the falling wedge potential too.

9:13 AM Update

10 Min

Pre Market

Looks like a little pop at the open again today. I see five waves up out of the triangle and has also met it's thrust target.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

4/26/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

The market finally broke and closed above overhead resistance. I thought that it would help me sort out the count options but I believe there are still quite a few out there.

I'm just gonna lay them out and let you decide what you think is best.

10 Min

Minor 4 Flat or Ascending Tri?

MINOR Ending Diagonal?

Bullish Minor 5 In Progress

4/26/11 - Pre Market

Pre Market


Something else to consider. If a new high is not made soon, the potential for a flat to form, I believe, has increased.

The wave structures since the 1344.07 high look like a balanced series of three wave structures, the ideal beginnings of a flat. If considering the triangle option, the proper labeling would be that the current leg is finishing up wave [b] vs a [d].

Given the remaining room that is left within the triangle's trendline, I'm not sure a complex wave [c] or [d] has room to build.

One again, a break of the trendlines will provide a clue. One thing to note is that the MACD buy signal has been confirmed so we must keep in mind that Minor 5 may already be in progress since the 3/16 low.

I've added the alternate label in there as well should this turn into a wave 3 rally up. Though Alt2 appears to be a triangle, it would just count as a complex corrective wxy.

Looks like a textbook triangle afterall and the count at 3:52 (chat room) was the correct one. So far up at resistance for the ascending triangle.

Will cash now target 1344.07 before turning down? ES looks like five waves up out of the tri so we'll have to see if it truly is resisted or if Minor 5 has been underway all this time.

Monday, April 25, 2011

4/25/11 - 9:00 PM Update

9:00 PM Update

The triangle for ES seems to be getting a little to out of proportion compared to the entire structure. I like this count here especially if the triangle breaks down.

Here's the hourly view. I believe a wave c/y is due tomorrow. A likely target would be the 20 MA at 1324. We shall see.

EOD Update
Still no resolution and the trendlines are still being respected. The market found some resistance at the blue symmetrical trendline today so one must believe this triangle may still be playing out.

I'll try to post my squiggle counts later if I have time once I sort it out. Just too many options there at the moment.

Friday, April 22, 2011

4/22/11 -

Bucky posted a comment in yesterday's EOD post and referenced INDU and RUT not pointing to a triangle. I think it is a very good point to consider since INDU made a new high.

It got me to think about SPX's triangle count. Given that triangles take time, we must consider IF a triangle is in play, that a running triangle may be forming on INDU.

However keep in mind I do have alternate labels that takes into consideration that Minor 4 is complete and that Minor 5 is in progress or that only Minor 3 is still in progress.



Thursday, April 21, 2011

4/21/11 - EOD Update [3:18 PM Update]

[3:18 PM Update]

Just wanted to the add the daily charts to highlight the bigger picture with it's various options.

Minor 4 Triangle Option

Watching both green and blue triangle trendlines. So far blue is being respected.

Keep in mind the subwaves for the triangle are still a work in progress, i.e. it could still be in [b] or working on [c] or [d]. As long as the trendlines are respected, we'll keep going from there and while keeping in mind that at least wave [c] or [d] should be complex.

Notice I have also placed an alternative for Minor 4 being complete?

Minor 3 In Progress Option

The very bullish alternative.

And a repetitive pattern to consider.

EOD Update

Still no new high and closed underneath the trendline. Still watching this potential triangle but something about this leg up off 1294 looks very impulsive (see chart below), which may be indicating something else is going on.

This leg up from 1294 looks pretty much complete, however, the Bollinger Bands (15 min) are tight again so perhaps one more pop early next week.

I believe a tiny little pullback will come in the form of either a wave x of [d] or all of [e].

This is the impulse count option. Will be watching 1332 and 1320 next week on any pullback.

4/21/11 - 10:44 AM Update

10:44 AM Update

This leg up may be complete.

Pre Market

Perhaps ES has one more leg up to go.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

4/20/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

What a rally today. Now the question is are we seeing an impulse wave up or another corrective move to add to the ever growing triangle?

I post my thoughts and options below for you to decide. As far as EW goes. It's always best to trade the third waves (whether they be a wave 3, c or y).

Hopefully we'll know tomorrow if the triangle is still the path the market wants to take.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

4/19/11 - EOD Update [4:41 AM 4/20/11 Update]

[4:41 AM 4/20/11 Update]

No Really. I think it's a wave 3.

[8:05 PM Update]

Certainly looking like a third wave now.

[4:35 PM Update]

Haven't updated ES here in a while other than in the chat room. Still looking good.

EOD Update

Still a few options out there and once again the three below are my top views, with the triangle option in the lead as long as higher lows continue to be made.

Minor 4 Triangle Option

My top option here and as you can see, I'm leaving room for wave [c] to potentially develop further. Triangles do take time to develop and waves [c] or [d] in triangles are usually complex so we must be prepared for this.

Minor 3 Top

This count has the same implications as the Minor 4 tri near term. So we'll continue to monitor this one.

Minor 3 In Progress

The most bullish of all and still valid so we must continue to monitor this alternative.

3 Min

Here's the 3 min breakdown for what I believe may be developing for wave x of [c]. However, this could be the first three wave structure up that represents wave w of a larger three wave move higher.

15 Min Impulse

And this would be a way to look at the bounce as the beginning to a possible impulse wave up. We'll see shortly.