Tuesday, June 21, 2011

6/21/11 - EOD Update [7:56 PM Update]

[7:56 PM Update]

If wave 4 blue is underway (5 min chart at EOD), a target of 1282-1285 may be in the cards for the following reasons:

1. It will be a 50% retracement of 3 blue
2. A backtest of the red descending trendline that connects the 5/5-5/17 lows.
3. The h/s target
4. The lower pink channel


I don't recall if I posted this here on the blog or in the chatroom. Anyway 1320 looks like it may have a target on it's back but we'll have to see if it provides solid resistance.



This channel is relevant and I'll be watching for a break of the descending MACD trendline to confirm a more bullish move is to come.


A closeup of the descending channel in green shows that the market climbed back over the mid channel. Target at the top is near the 50 SMA.


[4:29 PM Update]

RUT Daily


EOD Update

I'd say that was a pretty bullish day. A daily MACD buy signal occurred today. A follow through tomorrow should confirm.

The 200 day SMA proves to be a floor for now and there are counts to support them. Yesterday the 20 day SMA looked like a good target and sure enough the market headed there.

The 5 min and 60 min counts played out. I was expecting a wave 3 up and that is what the market provided.

On the 60 min below, it appears wave 3 extended a near perfect 1.618*1. So if that is the correct count, we may see some chop tomorrow for wave 4.

5 Min
It's possible wave 4 may be forming a triangle as well.

60 Min

Wave 3 right on the money with a 1.618*1 extension.

Minor 4

The triangle is still the primary with the running flat in close second. So far working on five waves up either representing wave 1/a of either [d] of the tri or wave 1 of a lower degree of Minor 5.

Bollinger Bands

Right on target as suspected yesterday.


I posted this channel a few days ago. The 200 day SMA and the mid channel support gave me a reasonable belief that a rally would ensue. Now the question is, are we in wave [d] or working on Minor 5.

Bear Count

This is still in play but I'd say weakening in it's credibility with the daily MACD turn. A daily confirmation tomorrow and this will really fall to the wayside.
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