Must not forget about this pattern. It appears a backtest of the neckline occurred on Friday. Can the bears finally follow through or will this be a repeat of July 2009 and June 2010?
EOW Update
It goes without saying that it has been a pretty bearish few weeks for the markets. The following are things to consider among others:
1. The market closed below a long term trendline (connected by the 3/2009 and 8/2010 lows)
It goes without saying that it has been a pretty bearish few weeks for the markets. The following are things to consider among others:
1. The market closed below a long term trendline (connected by the 3/2009 and 8/2010 lows)
2. Price continues to trend lower within a descending channel
2. The market continues to close below key moving averages; 20 and 50 SMAs, 13 and 34 EMAs
3. Those same MAs have crossed below the 50 SMA.
5. A possible EW count highlighting a nested 1-2 down. I still don't feel too confident of this but technically it is valid.
But even with all this, I still believe a larger degree running triangle is playing out and this is still my primary count.
The other sub-options for Minor 4 are still in play here.
2. The market continues to close below key moving averages; 20 and 50 SMAs, 13 and 34 EMAs
3. Those same MAs have crossed below the 50 SMA.
5. A possible EW count highlighting a nested 1-2 down. I still don't feel too confident of this but technically it is valid.
But even with all this, I still believe a larger degree running triangle is playing out and this is still my primary count.
Minor 4 Triangle Option
If this triangle is correct and assuming that wave [c] is complete, three things stand out to me:
1. Notice that Minor 4 alternates in time with Minor 2. Minor 2 was approximately 2 months and in this case Minor 4 may end up being 4 months.
2. Wave [c] has retraced wave [b] almost nearly 62%, a very typical retracement level within triangles.
3. Wave [c] certainly qualifies as a complex wave here. Though I have a potential bear count, this wave structure still "looks" way too corrective to me.
Technically this count is ruled out if the market drops below the wave [a] low of 1294.05. However, I would say if wave [c] retraces [b] greater than 78% then the odds that this is a triangle decreases greatly.
60 Min
The possible counts for wave [c]. Either [c] completed Friday or we may see one more leg down after a quick bounce. 
Minor 4
The Bear Count
This bear count still technically applies and if correct, a major sell off should be in store this week.
