Wednesday, September 21, 2011

EOD Update [8:42 PM Update]

[8:42 PM Update]

15 Min
Here's what I believe to be the internal count for either wave (b)/(x) of the blue count option or wave e of green count option. I'm looking for wave iv and v gold to complete this three wave structure.

EOD Update [3:54 PM Update]

Just a simple observation for the pattern that has played out over the past two months.

EOD Update

Unfortunately I was stuck in a meeting all day and was not able to watch the market or count the squiggles leading up to the FOMC announcement. At some point I was able to sneak out briefly and felt that the green count and blue sub-alternate count was still in play.

I'm sure I'm in the minority tonight with regards to where this is heading. However, one thing I find interesting is that this sideways action for the past two months has yet to make a lower low. That doesn't seem 100% bearish to me just yet, especially when two of my three counts still point for a move higher before retesting the lows.

In yesterday's EOD update, I noted in the blue count that the negative divergence on MACD was indicating that my sub-alternate for the blue count was most likely in play. It was listed on that chart and today's sell off confirmed that. I have updated that count below.

I like how price stopped right at the bottom of the gray channel and wave (b)/x) has now retraced wave (a)/(w) 62%.

I also brought up the green count option last night, which also looks like it may have completed wave e today. Again, the lower channel support applies here. Notice on last nights post at 3:13 PM, I indicated that wave e would touch down near the MACD TL support. By the end of the day MACD closed the day near this level.

Wave e in this case has also retraced wave d 62%, a typical retracement level in triangles.

I am starting to show the red count again. Be advised that it is more bearish than the 1100-1050 level most folks are looking for for a wave 5 low.  However, until 1121.09 is taken out, the blue and green counts are still ahead in this race.

The very near term question now is, will the lower gray channel hold for the 4th and perhaps 5th time? I'm thinking it may. The good thing is that the market is at a point where I will know sooner than later if I'm wrong.

Take a look at the 60 min MACD chart below. Just to reiterate what I mentioned above, price continues to make higher lows, the MACD histos continue to trend higher aside from today's potential outlier.

Blue - Primary

Green - 
This basically is the same count as the blue in terms of the expected price move from here.

Red Alternate - 
 Let's see if the market can take out 1121 first.

60 min MACD
Notice that the negative (red) MACD histograms continue to trend higher towards a positive number all the while price is still making higher lows. If this where supposed to be so bearish, why can't the bears make a new low already?
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