Thursday, October 6, 2011

EOD Update [8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]

[8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]

Looks like it wasn't an ED after all. Still looking for this to complete five waves up.

[3:25 PM Update : DAX - Five Waves Up]

HighRev in comments below mentioned the DAX so I decided to take a look. I apologize for the crude chart but I do not know the symbol for the DAX in TOS.

That's some pretty clean five waves up. This would line up well with the SPX count showing five up as well.
[2:50 PM Update: On The Way To 1180?]

5 Min
Here's another way to look at the squiggles and a possible extension count. SPX is either extending wave 3 or completes all five waves just under the 50 day SMA. 

I still like my primary below though ending right around the 1165-1169 area. However, the count above should be considered should the market rally further tomorrow.

EOD Update

Here's a simple chart I posted in the chat room earlier today showing  what I thought would transpire over the next several days. That right shoulder does not have to pull back that deep either.

I'm eyeing the 1130-35 area first for any pullback and then 1120 next. This would equate to a 38% and 50%  retracement respectively.

5 Min
I tracked this count for the better part of the day with a few adjustments as the wave 4s were morphing.
So far this looks pretty good and I have this pushing up just a tiny tad more but based on this, the count should be nearly complete.

I will explore the micro count squiggles later tonight to see if this potentially is extending even further especially should the NFP number gives it a reason to extend.

Daily Bollinger Band
A close above the 20 day SMA. This is a first since September 14. MACD is on the verge of a buy signal and confirmation of the +ve divergence which we have already seen with the McClellan Oscillator.

This is the top count. I like wave 1 ending right around here. It certainly can push a little higher but will see if that happens tomorrow. I'm expecting wave 2 to retrace down to approximately 1131-112x for a 38-50% retracement. Notice a backtest would occur of the descending channel as well.

HG - 60 Min
I like that copper counts a pretty clean five waves up and ends with an ED, which makes me lean towards a five count completion for SPX.

This count is losing credibility with every day the market ticks higher. Wave ii yellow has now retraced wave i yellow 78.6%. This is pretty steep under normal circumstances but to do so in a 2nd or 3rd nesting hints at the chances this being the count is most likely not correct.
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