Thursday, October 6, 2011

EOD Update [8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]

[8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]

Looks like it wasn't an ED after all. Still looking for this to complete five waves up.

HG
[3:25 PM Update : DAX - Five Waves Up]

HighRev in comments below mentioned the DAX so I decided to take a look. I apologize for the crude chart but I do not know the symbol for the DAX in TOS.

That's some pretty clean five waves up. This would line up well with the SPX count showing five up as well.
DAX
[2:50 PM Update: On The Way To 1180?]

5 Min
Here's another way to look at the squiggles and a possible extension count. SPX is either extending wave 3 or completes all five waves just under the 50 day SMA. 

I still like my primary below though ending right around the 1165-1169 area. However, the count above should be considered should the market rally further tomorrow.


EOD Update

Here's a simple chart I posted in the chat room earlier today showing  what I thought would transpire over the next several days. That right shoulder does not have to pull back that deep either.

I'm eyeing the 1130-35 area first for any pullback and then 1120 next. This would equate to a 38% and 50%  retracement respectively.

5 Min
I tracked this count for the better part of the day with a few adjustments as the wave 4s were morphing.
So far this looks pretty good and I have this pushing up just a tiny tad more but based on this, the count should be nearly complete.

I will explore the micro count squiggles later tonight to see if this potentially is extending even further especially should the NFP number gives it a reason to extend.

Daily Bollinger Band
A close above the 20 day SMA. This is a first since September 14. MACD is on the verge of a buy signal and confirmation of the +ve divergence which we have already seen with the McClellan Oscillator.
BLUE

This is the top count. I like wave 1 ending right around here. It certainly can push a little higher but will see if that happens tomorrow. I'm expecting wave 2 to retrace down to approximately 1131-112x for a 38-50% retracement. Notice a backtest would occur of the descending channel as well.

HG - 60 Min
I like that copper counts a pretty clean five waves up and ends with an ED, which makes me lean towards a five count completion for SPX.

Red
This count is losing credibility with every day the market ticks higher. Wave ii yellow has now retraced wave i yellow 78.6%. This is pretty steep under normal circumstances but to do so in a 2nd or 3rd nesting hints at the chances this being the count is most likely not correct.
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