[3:43 PM Update]
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| ES |
Let's see if this channel holds. I drew the same one for cash on the 30 min primary chart below.
EOD Update
The price overlap below 1256 invalidated the 15 min chart I had been posting. This should be considered a big red flag and cause one to reassess the counts . Hopefully you have been paying attention to the alternate count on the 60 min Primary count below.
Because of today's overlap, we must consider that wave X may be complete. Though I am emphasizing it here, I am still calling it the alternate count because there is still one bullish option that remains as presented below on the 5 and 30 min.
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| 60 Min - Primary |
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| Daily - Primary |
Keep an eye on the top of the descending trendline. Price stopped right at this level into the close.
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| 5 MIN - PRIMARY |
This may still be counted as corrective and as a bullish falling wedge. See the 30 min below
as to how this applies.
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| 30 MIN - PRIMARY |
I'm not necessarily a big fan of this nested 1-2 up but it is what it is at the moment. Wave 2 red has not quite retraced 1 red 62 % yet so it is valid.
I will look at other potential options that may call for the end of five waves up off the 10/4 low. This option would fit well with the "repeat" chart below. This of course would imply a much deeper retrace though.
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| ALTERNATE |
Here's a separate view of the long term alternate from the daily primary above.
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| 5 MIN- BEAR OPTION |
Since it may be possible to count wave X as complete, this is the count to consider if the 200 day SMA has rejected the month long rally.
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| 30 MIN - BEAR OPTION |
This is the breakdown for wave X.
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| REPEAT? |
I'm still watching this. Even if my primary above, at least the way it is counted, is wrong, this may still provide some guidance. There are a series of MAs below that may provide a floor for the market should more selling occur.
