Tuesday, October 11, 2011

EOD Update [9:26 PM Update]

[9:26 PM Update]
TLT - 60 Min

TLT looks like it may be set to rally a little bit to form wave c of 4. 118-119 looks like a decent near term target.

[2:00 PM Update]

An update for Germany. Looks like five clean waves up with an ED to boot. Leaving room for a flat though so let's see what happens tomorrow.

VIX - 15 m
This looks like a clean five waves down that may be complete.

EOD Update

In yesterday's EOD Update,  I mentioned that 1195 would be a logical near term resistance level. Today was basically a consolidation day right under that level and the squiggles were giving me a headache.

The most obvious pattern that stood out today was the triangle forming up on top. I may have rushed the count a little but the continued chop into the close surely hinted at it's continued development.

If the tri completed at the close, I expect a fifth wave move thrust out towards 1220 if 5=1 or 1211 if 5=.618*1. The thrust target is approximately 1215.

The second chart below calls for a five wave completion at the 1199.24 high. I lean towards given it equal weight with the triangle chart  but because this was a narrow range day and the fact that it looks like a  tri following this rally, the tri will have the edge for now.

Should wave (1) be deemed complete, I'm expecting wave (2) to touchdown near the 50 day SMA at 1174.

Something to consider is the hourly MACD sell signal that appears to have been confirmed at the close.

The VIX still looks like it may be heading to 30 so that may still support the tri count.

15 min - Tri Option

15 Min - Five Waves Complete
Copper continues to hint at a wave 2 pullback is in store for SPX.
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