Thursday, October 13, 2011

EOD Update

EOD Update

The bulls were able to step in and find support at 1190. A break below this level would have helped confirmed that wave 2 was underway.

Because of this the alternate count must still be considered and that is that a wave 4 playing out. See the Bollinger Band chart below, there are two scenarios on there that may line up with either scenario.

I'll be watching for the head and shoulders pattern tomorrow. If the bears cannot break it on an open lower, the alternate count must be watched.

15m- Primary

15m- Alternate
Perhaps a double top at 1220 to complete this impulse up.

Blue Primary
Still looking to confirm that wave (1) is complete. Notice that the market bounce off the lower channel that was recaptured.
Bollinger Bands - Daily
If past candlestick patterns provide a clue as to future market behavior, under the blue labels we may have seen the completion of this leg up. The first candlestick on 8/30 was a doji. It was then followed by a shooting star and then a red close before selling off back towards the lower end of the range.

Now take the first candlestick on 10/11 we have a doji once again. It is followed by a shooting star and then subsequently a lower close. This would fit with the 15 m primary chart and that wave 2 is underway.

If the market is following the alternate chart, then pay attention to the red labels. On 9/19 a "hanging man" (or is it a hammer?) type candle is printed which is then followed by shooting star.

Should today's "hanging man" (or is it a hammer?) candle stick be followed by a shooting star tomorrow, I can see this scenario playing out as well. This would assume that tomorrow, the market opens lower to complete wave 4 before pressing to a new high to complete wave 5. Once complete, the market would reverse and thus create the shooting star.
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