Wednesday, October 26, 2011

EOD Update [9:25 PM Update]

[9:25 PM Update]

ES
Wave a of 3 sports five very clear EW waves. Browsing the blogosphere tonight, I see talk by many who want to short this rally (assuming this holds up by the open). This count above should be considered should a pullback result but it may only represent a wave b of 3.

Just something to consider.

Repeat?
Here's a chart I continue to update in the chat room. So something to consider. Should this overnight rally hold, will this represent progress towards A? or will this confirm that point C? has already completed and does not turn back for a while.

SPX - Weekly 'W' Bottom?
And still tracking this pattern. So far it appears that step 4 may be in progress after all. Note the level where the upper Bollinger Band is currently at?

For more on this pattern see this previous post.




1268 anyone?


EOD Update

Things turned out pretty much as expected in yesterday's post albeit a minor hiccup at the open as the market rallied 14 some points before finding a daily low near 1220 and then rallying into the close.

The rally off the day's low counts as three waves up so far and what may have been wave 4 into the close.

All three counts below are still in play. A 30 min MACD buy signal was confirmed today with the 60 turning up.

The bears need to reverse this starting tomorrow or it looks like the most recent high will be challenged at 1256.

Primary

Alternate 1

Alternate 2
Battle Line

Advantage bulls at the moment.

SPX- 60 Min TL
Short term this may be a key TL.

McClellan Oscillator
Not sure how much this +ve divergence will play a role but the past two days show a reading of 49 and 71. Granted there is no divergence with the SPX on a closing basis but certainly a divergence with the reaction lows. Anyway, couple this with the primary count and a few other indicators and this may be indicating a move higher for SPX.


The weekly MACD continues to build on its buy signal confirmation. So absent a reversal the next three days, this should be confirmed.

Notice the 80 week SMA (blue line). It currently sits at 1213. So should alt 1 or alt 2 play out, I believe it may provide a floor for the market.


A possible target before a larger pullback. That just so happens to coincide with the 200 day SMA.
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