Monday, October 31, 2011

EOD Update [3:43 PM Update]

[3:43 PM Update]

ES
Let's see if this channel holds. I drew the same one for cash on the 30 min primary chart below.

EOD Update

The price overlap below 1256 invalidated the 15 min chart I had been posting. This should be considered a big red flag and cause one to reassess the counts . Hopefully you have been paying attention to the alternate count on the 60 min Primary count below.

Because of today's overlap, we must consider that wave X may be complete. Though I am emphasizing it here, I am still calling it the alternate count because there is still one bullish option that remains as presented below on the 5 and 30 min.

60 Min - Primary
Daily - Primary
Keep an eye on the top of the descending trendline. Price stopped right at this level into the close.

5 MIN - PRIMARY
This may still be counted as corrective and as a bullish falling wedge. See the 30 min below
as to how this applies.

30 MIN - PRIMARY

I'm not necessarily a big fan of this nested 1-2 up but it is what it is at the moment. Wave 2 red has not quite retraced 1 red 62 % yet so it is valid.

I will look at other potential options that may call for the end of five waves up off the 10/4 low. This option would fit well with the "repeat" chart below. This of course would imply a much deeper retrace though.

ALTERNATE
Here's a separate view of the long term alternate from the daily primary above.

5 MIN- BEAR OPTION
Since it may be possible to count wave X as complete, this is the count to consider if the 200 day SMA has rejected the month long rally.

30 MIN - BEAR OPTION
This is the breakdown for wave X.

REPEAT?
I'm still watching this. Even if my primary above, at least the way it is counted, is wrong, this may still provide some guidance. There are a series of MAs below that may provide a floor for the market should more selling occur.
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