Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weekend Thoughts [3:50 PM Update]

[3:50 PM Update]

I updated the the 2008 analogy below for the bear case and added some comments.

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Check back throughout the weekend as I will add commentary on the charts and working on an additional chart to add to the bear case. I will probably re-arrange the charts below as well but wanted to put then out there for now.

Since last week's Weekend Thoughts update the bull case continues to strengthen.



THE BULL CASE


Weekly 'W' Bottom
I would say this has been confirmed. Eyeing the upper band.

3- Push Pattern
I have made some adjustments to the target for 1 and 2 mainly based on the channel trendlines.

13 EMA - 80 SMA Weekly
Lots of cross ups.

Long Term Channels





LT Corrective Option
 Even this corrective count option provides for new highs.
Fibonacci Targets


THE BEAR CASE
2008 Repeat?

I updated this chart. There may be problems with this analogy for 2008.

During the 2008 backtest of the 50 week SMA, MACD had crossed up well before the backtest and the histograms began to diverge right at the backtest.

Compare that to today and you now have price closing over the 50 week and the buy signal confirming this week. So this comparison may not be as similar as initially thought.

This essentially weakens the bear case and if anything, weakens the analogy.


50 / 200 Month SMA
Again, this chart is 50/50 and may start to favor the bulls as the MACD histos may start to trend higher.
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