Tuesday, November 1, 2011

EOD Update [3:52 PM Update- Primary change]

[3:52 PM Update- Primary change]

I hate to keep tweaking the counts but at the moment, I think this may be the better count. I have flip-flopped the previous primary with the alt at today's EOD update.

Upon looking at the squiggles again, I believe we may have 7 waves down to complete a corrective wave vs 9 to complete an impulse with an extension.

The MACD on the 60 min below will be telling should it turn right at the TL support.

Don't get me wrong, the 5min alt 1 and 2 counts I presented at 2:54 PM are very much valid but in the end, all three counts are looking for a bounce sometime tomorrow.

So for now, it may be better to look for a Fib target above and sort out the waves on the rebound to come.

30 Min- Primary
I'll certainly be keeping an eye for a backtest of the broken TL.

60 Min - Primary
Let's see if price will climb back into the channel.

[2:54 PM Update]

Upon examining the squiggles a little more, I think these 2 alternate views should be considered. Both press for a bounce at near the open.

ES has an hourly MACD buy signal at a key Fib retracement (38%) so let's see what happens overnight. Still watching that head and shoulders pattern to. ES may target 1250.

5 min - ALT1
5 min - ALT2
EOD Update

As much as I want to believe that the 10/4 low is the Primary wave 2 low, there is just no way to legitimately count five waves up off the 10/4 low.

With today's bearish follow through, the last bullish impulse count up has been eliminated and I have now place the alternate count as the primary. This count has an intermediate wave [x] underway. The alternate to that is that wave [x] completed at the10/27 high.

At the moment, the market is in the process of completing five waves down and closed the day just above the 20 day SMA.

5 min
Either wave 5 is underway or a wave c bounce tomorrow is in store for a wave 4 flat.

Daily Primary
Here's the revamped count again to show the alternate as the new primary. Notice it is very possible to count wave [x] as complete as well.

The daily MACD is starting to roll over and the weekly may start to break down as well.

Please don't confuse this change of count as a reversal to the charts I posted over the past two weekends. This new primary may still accommodate new highs to come.

60 min

Looking for the completion of the first five waves for wave a of x green. Let's see if MACD bounces at the TL. That may signal the start of at least wave b of x up.

Daily Bollinger Bands
The market took a break right at the 20 day SMA and near the 38% retracement. With five waves almost complete, one would expect a decent size bounce to follow.

Still watching this analog. So far the 50 week has rejected the backtest.

TNX - 10 Year Yield
Shame on me for not following up on this. I had been tracking the count and spotted five clean waves up the other. In fact I was commenting on the beautiful adherence to the guideline of alternation between wave 4 and 2.

Anyway, so far looks like five waves down or nearly five waves down to the 62% retracemement level. I'm looking for a wave b bounce before one more leg down.
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