Thursday, December 1, 2011

12/1/11 - EOD Update [7:46 PM Update]

[7:46 PM Update]


Let's see if ES is leading the way here. Perhaps wave e takes all night to play out. Pay attention to the Fib extension targets for wave 5 and time target based on the apex of the triangle.

[2:27 PM Update]

SPX - 10 Min 
I forgot to include this chart along with the other option for wave 4, which in this case is a potential flat towards the lower channel near the 1235 support level. This would also line up with a wave 4 retracement back towards the previous sub-wave 4.

And while looking at that chart, wave 4 could turn into a descending triangle with a 1235 base level.

EOD Update

Today's small range day has to be viewed as a bullish consolidation. Per the primary count below, a wave 4 triangle is in the works. I believe the little drop at the end of the day capped off wave c of 4.

It is also very possible that wave 4 has completed and a quick wave 5 pop to the upside will complete this first leg up. This would coincide with a better than expected NFP (NonFarm Payroll) day and sell the news after a quick pop.

As you can see below, both the primary and alternate 1 count will allow for one more such little pop before both imply some downside to come afterwards.  Of course each count differs in how far the drop will be.

This also fits well with the pending 60 min MACD sell signal.
SPX - 60 Min -Primary
9 Waves Makes An Impulse
As mentioned yesterday, up until this AM, there were only 7 waves up. Today's consolidation would be considered wave 8, which would lead to a 9th wave up tomorrow to complete the rally.

VIX - Daily
The VIX's daily MACD confirmed a sell signal today and price closed again within the band, thus eliminating the possibility of  an equity sell signal.
SPX  - Alternate 1
This count is still valid and what it does have going for it right now is the fact that the 60 min MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.
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