12/7/11 - Pre Market

1 Min

 So far I count three waves down off yesterday's high. In fact the tiny squiggles for the top half of the wave suggests that an a-b-c for wave W is  more appropriate.

So very near term there are 2 things to watch for. If the bears are starting a new five wave impulse down, any bounce at the open cannot retrace back into wave 1/W (1262.92)  grey or there will be a 4-1 wave violation.

Second, if this is a double zigzag down, wave a of Y may have only completed and a bounce at the open may only be wave b of Y before one more leg down for wave c of Y.

Until wave b is put in I cannot project for wave c but assuming wave b retraces to 1261, wave c=a at 1256. So something to keep in mind.

Option 1

Still watching this as the primary count. Though I'm assuming wave 5 is complete, I have a few side options for this count:

1. Wave 5 is extending. I'll say this option will be out if a break below 1255.26 occurs where I have wave c red.

2. A flat is in play and wave c pink is expected to retrace at minimum back near the wave "or a" pink

I will also be keeping an eye on that ascending blue TL. That plays a role for the triangle option below.

Triangle Option

Here this is again. A break below 1243.35 will knock the tri option out as I have it labeled. I'll be keeping an eye on the green TL for this option which is currently at 1252.

GLTA!