Tuesday, December 27, 2011

12/27/11 - EOD Update

Last week, the primary count was looking for a completion of wave 3 near 1270. Today the market pushed up to 1269.37. That's pretty darn close enough.


SPX - 30 Min - Primary

Per the primary, wave 4 blue began today. 1259 looks like it may be a very good target for the following reasons:

1. A backtest of the 200 day SMA
2. The intersection of several trendlines that may act as support at this level (see chart above).
3. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 1259 as well.

Wave 4 blue can retrace further so long as 1242.81 holds, since this is the top of wave 1 on my chart above.

SPX - 15 Min - Primary B
The next best count is that five waves up completed for wave 1 of  (c)/(3) grey. Per this count, a deeper retracement more along the lines of  38% (1243) -62% (1228) would be expected.

The 60 min MACD -ve divergence may be hinting at this option. Let's see if the bulls hold the ascending channel tomorrow for a clue.
SPX - 15 Min - Primary C
I like this option as much as the primary B option but will give B the edge due to the -ve MACD divergence. Again, the channel will be key here. 1260 appears to be a key level for this one.

Weekly
Earlier I showed this chart and the significance of 1267. Notice the zero-line cross on the weekly MACD?
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