Wednesday, December 28, 2011

12/28/11 - EOD Update

As suspected yesterday a top was found at yesterday's high. The 60 min MACD -ve divergence I also pointed out, which favored Primary B was confirmed today as well.

The question now is which top are we dealing with?

The primary marked yesterday's high as the top of wave 3 and the Primary B count marked it as a complete five waves up. We can eliminate primary C and just focus on the Primary and Primary B.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary
Wave 4 technically has retraced wave 3 a respectable amount and is now within the territory of the previous wave 4.

However, I do have issues with steepness of this retrace. This count has certainly become suspect. A retrace below 1242 and this count will be ruled out completely.

I would say Primary B has certainly gained a lot of ground in terms probability.

SPX - 15 Min - Primary B
This count has certainly gained some ground and looks as though wave a of (2) may have completed or is very close to completing. I suspect if this is the correct count, a re-test of teh 200 day SMA would be in store with the wave b bounce.

So tomorrow at some point, we should see the market either bounce in a wave 5 up or at minimum test the 200 day SMA via a wave b of (2) bounce.
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